Risk and Reward
Greetings Golfers,
One of the many ways that I drove my kids crazy when they were growing-up, was that I constantly said that everything is risk-reward.
They’d roll-their-eyes … and say “Yeah, we know Dad”.
It’s the basis of golf course management - as a business … and as a golfer playing the game.
And … it’s really about knowing yourself and your capabilities. Not just the conventional wisdom for playing the odds.
So, Weds. night the Twins were losing their final playoff game to the Astros by one run in the 9th inning. I’ve got the game on the radio while driving home. So, Polanco is the Twins first batter … and he’s ahead in the count 3 balls to 1 strike. I’m screaming at the radio that he uses this advantage and swing. Instead, he takes a called strike on a fastball down the middle. And as I told myself he would - he struck out on the next pitch … basically ending the game and the Twin’s season. The Twins management thought the smart play was to take the pitch and hope for a walk. Wow. This is not Little League baseball … Polanco had the advantage - he had to be swinging.
The Twins strikeout a ridiculous amount. Not because they’re too free swinging … but they’re not in control of the risk-reward aspect at the plate. It’s too conventional … and only works against mediocre pitching … not playoff pitching.
If Polanco had swung and popped-up on that 3-1 pitch … people would have complained and said he should’ve taken the pitch. If he’d swung and homered to tie the game … those same people wouldn’t have said how smart it was … they just would’ve taken it for granted.
I’m not advocating for just being aggressive … I’m advocating for knowing yourself and weighing each situation on its own.
For example, a guy who was playing in his first golf tournament as a Pro, was leading until the end of the round … and a guy who’d already finished, insisted that he hit a big cut around the corner on the par 5 hole. This guy said that wasn’t his style and that he planned on drawing it up at the top left corner to give himself a good angle. But, this guy let himself be talked into what everyone else had been doing … and promptly cut-it into the woods and made 7. He didn’t win.
Playing it safe or taking a risk depends on understanding your talents and weighing the particular situation. It isn’t something that comes from data. Data is useful for understanding - I know my numbers. But, I make my decisions on more than data … I’m weighing risk-reward in everything I do.
I seldom drive much anymore … but this morning I drove on the freeway. Wow. The lane changing and getting on and off ramps is mind-boggling. Talk about not understanding risk-reward.
Though bad here, it’s nothing like when I drive from South Carolina to Orlando for the PGA Show every January. I-95 is a 6 lane road … 3 lanes going South … 3 lanes coming up North. So … the middle lane is to drive the speed limit … the left lane is to pass … and the right lane is to exit and enter the freeway. Not exactly rocket science.
However, I have people in the right lane pass me at 90 mph … then, 3 miles up the road, they’re in the left lane going 40 mph. Or, people come flying up in the right lane, turn left fast and almost hit me as they head into the left lane … then they turn hard-right in front of me to exit the freeway. This insanity is non-stop for 6 hours.
How about our schools teaching basic common-sense and risk-reward concepts?
Sports are such a laboratory for these concepts. If you have a mediocre football team and you’re playing a really talented team ranked #2 in the nation … would you play boring vanilla football?
You’re going to lose playing normal football … why not play risky football?
But … going into safe mode when you’re leading isn’t smart either. Remember this year’s College Hockey Final when the Gophers went into “playing not to lose” when they had the lead? We all knew they would lose.
Well, I can see you rolling your eyes like my kids used to. Enough is enough. I get it. But I can’t stop obsessing about risk-reward. Not if I keep watching sports or driving a car.
Cheers!
Tom Abts
GM/Head PGA Professional
tabts@deerrungolf.com